Step by Step: How the Financial System’s Coffin was Nailed!

In my conversations with people these days many quiz themselves on how a financial crisis of this dimension was conceived in the first place …. So here’s my attempt to piece the disaster together. I am not an economist by training, but will nonetheless try and build a layman’s model of what led to this doomsday!
. In my conversations with people these days many quiz themselves on how a financial crisis of this dimension was conceived in the first place …. So here’s my attempt to piece the disaster together. I am not an economist by training, but will nonetheless try and build a layman’s model of what led to this doomsday!

. Like any terminal illness, all this did not happen in a day, a week, month or even a year. Years of neglect, greed & improper governance were the root of the crisis. Lets take a peek…

. The financial world at the turn of the twenty first century created radically different trends with Asia generating massive surplus riding on the macroeconomic waves in China & India. The US on the other hand faced current account deficits despite being preceded by a Clinton era where the President actually turned around a deficit laden economy and balanced the budget before his term was over

. Despite the dodgy financial fundamentals in the US, the Bush government’s foreign policy was built around massive spending – a significant portion of which was linked to defense expenditure incurred in Afghanistan & Iraq

. Instead of Americans paying this bill, foreign borrowings (presumably the surplus from China) funded the spend while taxes were cut and interest rates were kept low at home– a surplus of cheap money was built for general consumption, falling into the hands of people, many of who did not know how to use it wisely!

. Stock, securities and real estate flourished and equity that was generated through asset appreciation related gains were reinvested in more of the same instruments and used for other forms of consumption, may of them needless (also called conspicuous consumption)

. The evolution of the ‘Free Market Economy’ in the US also radically changed innocuous financial instruments which I believe was built during the Clinton era to increase home ownership and labeled Collaterized Debt Obligations (CDO) into vicious financial tornadoes which coupled with sub prime mortgages extensive financial leverage practices and risk tolerance by established financial instruments broke the proverbial camel’s back in many places!!

. In parallel the excessive import related deficit of the current administration quickly eroded all the budget surplus benefits that the Clinton administration drove – the US dollar faced downward pressure and suddenly creditors both domestic and foreign had better options to route their funds

. Federal reserve had no choice whatsoever but to raise interest rates (despite a slowing economy) as the dollar fell and commodity prices rose driving an inflationary climate progressively

. As Interest rates rose, some of the sub prime mortgagees began to realize that the interest rate rise had suddenly turned their mortgage payments unaffordable. The snowball began small but grew rapidly and soon led to situations where lenders started revaluing the risk which in turn led to de-leveraging of assets!

. Large scale divesture of risky assets followed in increasingly illiquid markets while at the same time radical fall in asset valuations dramatically impacted balance sheets of very prominent establishments. The establishments had no choice but to raise capital till the money market ran dry as paranoia ran high amongst investors!!!

. Thus is the story so far as banks stop trusting each other and inter bank lending virtually stops – interest rate cuts do not help as the cash level in bank vaults continue to stay low (as the banks stop lending to each other) affecting both the individual and the corporation alike!

. The US administration has heeded the internal advisory and has stayed out of any direct involvement way too long – by the time Paulson, Bernanke and his cronies got involved it was too late! The bail-out plan that was prescribed by the Presidential decree was mired with conflicting opinions of why the common tax payer should bear the brunt of a trillion dollar rescue package needed to fix the greed and misdeeds of a section who have amassed massive wealth and are running scot free, still ‘very rich’!

. The financial community internally and externally lost all confidence – investment withdrawals and redemptions followed, causing the breakdown of financial systems worldwide and complete pandemonium!

. While the US government’s corrective policies have had scant impact with even the US arranged meeting of the G7 nations, the European Union’s follow up actions of injecting cash into their banking system and guaranteeing credit facilities have set the bank collaboration going freeing up the financial system and setting the world markets on an upswing!

. Still a long way to go before the tremors subside but any buck in the trend is welcome. Borrowing the lessons of greed (see my other Post), I hope the world will learn and end up being a better place going forward as we painfully navigate through the quagmire that is our own creation!

Greed is Good …. The Parable from Wall Street!

It was in my freshman undergraduate year that I watched Oliver Stone’s ‘Wall Street’ and was thoroughly impressed by the ‘style’ of the ‘Street’ not to mention Michael Douglas’ Gordon Gekko character that personifies the summary and celebration of free market capitalism (“I am not talking about the regular Wall Street stiff, flying first class and being comfortable, I am talking liquid! Rich enough to own your own jet, rich enough not to waste time. 50, a 100 million a year.. a player!)

. The movie closes with Gekko ending up in prison but not before very successfully hammering down ‘Greed’ as a ‘Virtue’ for the continued innovation and evolution of mankind and human spirit! I hear that a sequel might be in the works with Gekko (now a free man!) emerging in today’s financial hotspot … Shanghai, China!

. Lets ponder on Greed though – I want to do this because of the potentially negative label that the word carries stemming from the seven deadly sins! I tend to some what agree with Gordon Gekko’s summation. The manifestation of Greed emerges from the individual’s perspective of the word. Every achievement of any proportion arises out of greed … greed drives desire, leading to focused actions, which leads to results. Greed therefore leads to actual results that benefit an individual, a group, community, nation or mankind depending on the intensity of the action!

. The scale and the benefit that the ‘greed’ led action drives defines the nature of ‘greed’ and is possibly what Gordon Gekko was alluding to when he labelled it as ‘Good’. From Aristotle, Archimedes, Gandhi, Luther King, Edison, Gates, Jobs to even Mr. Buffet, there is an incredible internal motivation to build innovative ‘models’ in tech, human rights, government and finance followed by superior execution that provides ‘ incremental value’ to millions of people over decades – much more than initially perceived

. So what is that ‘internal motivation’ that led these individuals to do what they did? Controversial as it may sound, seems like it was ‘Greed’ (as in ‘an intense desire with a perceivable outcome’) for accomplishing their objective that gave meaning to their lives and defined their destinies. In the process they positively touched generations around the world. This greed (whilst not totally ‘Selfless’) does not seem bitter rather it sounds ‘Good’ to most of us!

. On the other hand as the world today reels under the largest financial catastrophe of our lifetime, I question were ‘Greed’ sits in the equation. The Sub prime mortgages, the collateralized debt obligations and the leveraged positions that are breaking the largest financial institutions were not meant to be what they finally evolved into! So who and what led that evolution … well it is the other form of ‘Greed’ … the stuff that sent Gekko behind bars!

. So how is this form of greed different? Well, it still drives massive benefits but specifically to an individual or a small group of individuals at the expense of a much larger majority! “While Richard Fuld of Lehman was pleading with Secy. Paulson for Federal rescue, Lehman was recommending to its compensation committee four days before bankruptcy filing that three departing execs should receive more than 20 million in “special payments” (Straits Time Singapore, 8 Oct 08). Another example of how this industry squandered on executive compensation at the expense of the hapless shareholders and the tax payer in general who has to contribute to the 700 billion bailout package to save the US economy

. I fervently hope that we will see collaboration between the government, regulators and the industry worldwide to tidy over this mess as quickly as possible with not too severe global impact! (I am the eternal optimist). I am also quite certain that in the aftermath of this debacle more stringent governance measures will be implemented as the pendulum shifts to the other extreme! Massive changes in work processes will be implemented and workflow will get more complicated and long drawn … learning from our mistakes is laudable, all good stuff!

. The ultimate test however will be TIME and the human nature … so we are back to ‘Greed’. Greed will drive humanity again into taking little chances, small shifts from the dictum in the name of innovation and value creation to drive the economy and the industry! Government, regulators and the industry will all be drawn into the party till we are hit by another tidal wave … the cycle will be complete!

. Good or bad, ‘Greed’ will live on and we will have to learn to deal with the Gordon Gekko…..

F1 Singapore 2008 – Super Race, Super Show!

The inaugural F1 night race has placed Singapore on the map as a world class location for high visibility global events! The practice runs, the qualifying round for the pole position and the grand finale were executed with the obvious finesse that is associated with any F1 event. The infrastructure was almost equally flawless in supporting the event in its first year in front of 130,000 on site audience and 500 million television viewers worldwide! Fantastic!

. Local outfits had the opportunity of doing brisk business & enjoyed brand visibility despite a rather gloomy macro economic environment. Congratulations go out to Singtel & everybody else associated with hosting the event! Following all the kudos, Singapore has to continue to seek excellence by taking pages from city circuit venues like Monaco, who have hosted similar races for more than 79 years.

. As a spectator at the event, I felt inadequacies in transportation, extended road blocks, seating coordination & food outlets while the drivers had to contend with bumpy road surfaces and soaring track temperatures! Mental notes need to be taken to fix these next year!

. Singapore & all of us also have many a lesson to learn from the races themselves. Team Ferrari’s debacle after taking 2 out of the 3 positions from the Pole in the finals - then getting totally knocked out in the final run! Lessons like team co-ordination & collaboration or the lack of it can ruin the best laid plans as Ferrari experienced during Filipe Masa’s fatal pit stop.

. Also a lesson that ‘Hope’ is a winner’s best friend from a despairing Alonso who stood with virtually no chance after the qualifiers but then eventually won the race on Sunday driving with grit & hope. A lesson that Winning is not necessarily brought about by excelling individually but also by seizing the opportunities created by the opponents’ shortcomings as experienced by Alonso who started off by virtually trailing the entire lineup.

. All in all an excellent demonstration of speed, discipline & collaboration and also the pitfalls and failures that so characterize us as human beings. Big win for Singapore and a big win for the human innovation and spirit!

. As the season wraps up with the final race in Brazil, I salute Louis Hamilton, the 2008 F1 Champion for his single minded focus, dedication and ability to act at the right time in the right way that saw him screech into the ultimate winner slot by securing a position in the first five at Sau Paolo in front of a bewildered Masa who did everything right in the final race and his legions of loyal Brazilian fans!

.

Malaysia 2008 - The 'Caring' Budget

Malaysia has unnecessarily pulled the brakes on its economic progress further through its political inadequacies within a prevailing global macro economic slow-down. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi himself labelled the latest budget a “caring budget”, with most of the policies meant to address the immediate problems faced by Malaysians especially the impact of spiraling inflation on the price of food and fuel! These accommodating measures have also created a perspective among critics that the budget is angled towards a favorable election, though hopefully it does have a placating effect on the populace - which translates to a more stable socio-political environment for businesses to prosper.

As Malaysia tries to expand its business influence in the region, the government also recognises that the country’s ability to continually grow its pool of diverse skilled workers along with strong fiscal incentives will play a critical role in attracting foreign direct investment. This understanding is reflected in the budget with substantial government spend allocated for training and education and the incorporation of the Knowledge Workers Development Institute. In terms of fiscal measures, the Government has also several tax exemptions for businesses while hiring and investing in Malaysia and will also lower corporate tax to 25% in 2009. These definite steps taken to address inflation, education & business viability will hopefully support the country’s progress within the prevailing circumstances.

Leadership lessons from China

On 8 August, China further stamped its leadership in the international theatre with an incredibly impressive demonstration of its art, history & culture on the one hand and its ability to use cutting edge technology, first class infrastructure and superior execution on the other! I am talking about the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics.
A billion people worldwide sat mesmerized by the Greatest Show on Earth! What followed in the days after was finely honed skill, passion & an absolute desire to Win – the result, a record gold medal haul by a country that won its first gold medal in 1984.
Through all of this what shines through is the leadership, national growth & people development cult that flows through the country underlined by the passion & determination to WIN. I am quite certain that its not just about people talent, intensive planning, strategy or the 40 Billion dollars that went down to host the show! Its deeper than that - it is the unified determination, discipline, deligence, belief, collaboration and pride of over a billion people in a vastly spread & diversified land.
Every other nation, society or organization that strives for similar attainments need to mirror the spirit of the Chinese people. Passionately striving & preparing for leadership in everything that mattered - each performance category, in getting their city ready to host the world, in making the sacrifices to ensure that the air was clean despite the criticism that was waged upon them, in displaying the pride of the people regarding their country and culture and in demonstrating the spirit of the games by supporting every participant and providing a flavor to the games that was very, very unique. Very impressive ... Congratulations China!

Coping with the rising cost of the Asian workforce .. what do organizations do?

Employee related cost is not about the compensation and benefits alone. The hidden costs involving training, skills development, intellectual knowledge and associated skills, lead time in understanding internal procedure, costs around development of customer relationships are significant and far exceed visible costs of employing an individual. Add up all of this, then add the talent-cum-value component to it and you begin to realize how expensive it is to lose a valuable member of the team and then replace him/her!

To proactively prevent any of this, I believe in placing strong emphasis on people development within organizations. This not only augments knowledge and skills that help people stay motivated & productive on an ongoing basis while being aligned with the organization’s directions but also grow them as professionals and individuals progressively taking larger challenges & roles. I also value the need for recognition of outstanding achievements and celebration of success. Employees need to be made aware that their efforts have paid off and the organization has the performers on its radar! Any organization that consistently pursues these goals will create a first class workforce & build competitive advantage over its competitors by growing achievers & leaders at all levels much quicker than their competitors.

The flip side of the coin are employees unsuitable for the roles they are employed for. It is a cardinal sin to prolong with these engagements – these hurt both the employee and the organization! Organizational leadership should continually monitor these instances, provide opportunities for improvement and separate the ties (where that is the only option) as early as possible. This saves money, time & productivity for the organization and forces the employee to seek another employment that is more suitable to the personality where the individual might thrive!

Rising Asian rentals are not all that bad!

Commercial & residential rental spike are affecting business costs and competitiveness within Asian businesses? Is there a way to view this in a positive light?

Rental spikes have caught organizations and operating budgets by surprise especially those who are renewing leases originally set out in the post 9-11 era in a gutted real estate market.
While some regional governments have been kind in providing tax reliefs, organizations will need to go back to time tested business fundamentals to address and prevail in these circumstances. They will need to focus on costs that are within their control & reduce these to counter & soften the impact of rent related cost escalations

On a more optimistic note I see rising rents flagging a robust economy! Overhead costs are up - but so are the opportunities for incremental revenue! Higher expenses can be justified if these expanded expenses generate expanded revenue while keeping the expense to revenue ratio at par with previously prevailing levels. Efficient organizations will take this in as a cost of doing business and get on with accelerating their growth within a buoyant economy.

Expanding business real estate - what is viable?

Alternative business hubs are an important planning agenda item for the governments of all hot Asian economies. Hong Kong and Singapore have evolved traditional residential quarters like Taikoo Shing & Tampines in recent years into residential, business and recreational destinations. Great infrastructure, glitzy commercial and retail outlets and satellite offices of prominent organizations from financial services, technology and media. These hubs help average out real estate valuations providing alternatives to owners and tenants and drive a more holistic economic development process

What normally makes business districts sought after are location and critical mass of businesses, shopping and entertainment options. In Singapore, this will further intensify as the new premier Shenton Way real estate develops and the integrated resort gets ready.

While building new business hubs might ease the congestion and soaring rentals, they will need to provide suitable alternative value propositions, similar to what the original business district does, to be considered as an alternative. The planning process by Asia’s governments’ will need to take this into consideration and put in suitable plans to drive this successfully.

Organizations need to innovate in Asia

• A culture that encourages Innovation is a key differentiator and a crucial ingredient of every ‘Gold standard’ organisation in any industry.
• These organisations have embedded this quality into its core fabric and the organisation's leaders preach and live this quality everyday setting the example for the rest of the employees to follow.
• Innovation, besides delivering competitive advantage also contributes towards building employee skills, knowledge, market share, customer base and ultimately shareholder value.
• Singapore and regional organizations can benefit significantly by encouraging an innovation led culture in their quest towards attracting high class talent, in scaling their operation and in their ability to compete with brands from global powerhouses.
• While it is easy to recognise the virtues of innovation, not all organisations succeed in implementing it.
• In addition to management commitment and creation of an innovation-friendly environment, successful organisations introduce monetary and non-monetary rewards for innovators in their ranks and establish a perception were experimentation is encouraged and failures that come out of these experimentations are not looked down upon or penalised.
• That said, it takes time to build this platform of commitment and trust. It is not an overnight phenomenon.